(PRWEB) April 27, 2006 -- After a grueling 82-game regular season, the NBA playoffs are finally here. During the post season many sharper players shift the focus from sides and totals to something easier to beat: playoff series wagers.
Betting on the winner of a series often provides a bigger return on investment than wagering on a straight side. Consider this hypothetical: two fairly equal teams are playing a best of seven series at a neutral site. One can bet on any of the seven games at Pick'em, or the winner of the series. From basic handicapping, every bettor knows that the two teams aren't equal and one of the teams should win each game about 52% of the time. The fair moneyline for each game is (-52/48 * 100) = -108.3. Taking advantage of the 10-cent reduced juice lines at Pinnacle Sportsbook will give bettors a marginal play, while betting at a traditional sportsbook's 20-cent lines will always leave players making negative wagers.
Considering the series play, the team handicapped as a favorite will win the series about 54.3% of the time. This is the danger bookmakers face when handicapping series – small mistakes in the line compound themselves, giving players better opportunities than just betting the games.
Players often use Sagarin's power ratings to handicap playoff series. Take for example a potential second round match-up of San Antonio and Dallas. Using Sagarin's ratings, the Spurs would likely be moderate favorites at home, and small road dogs. Unfortunately, blindly using power ratings doesn't work as well in the playoffs. Some teams, especially those that started the season slow and finished strong, will outperform the power rating. Understanding situational factors is critical not just to playoff game betting, but mid-series betting as well. Two examples being that home court advantage increases in a game 7 and that teams that get blown out usually play better than after losing a tight game.
Another tip for mid-series betting is to pass on long-shots down 3 games to 0. No team has ever come back to win an NBA series after being down 3-0. The comeback requires more than just winning 4 evenly matched games as the team up 3-0 is not only the superior team, but will likely play 2 out of the 4 games at home. Consider the current Detroit-Milwaukee series. Detroit at home is a 13:1 favorite. On the road, Detroit will be better than a 2:1 favorite. If Milwaukee goes down 3-0 and the market prices are right, the Bucks chances of completing the first "grand-slam" series comeback are (1/14)(1/14)(1/3)(1/3), or 1764 to 1 against.
Whenever playing futures, bettors should know how much juice they're paying. PinnacleSports.com provides a calculator where one can type in the moneylines and have the juice calculated. Players not used to higher moneylines often mistakenly believe they're paying more juice, since the two moneylines are further apart. If you see a series priced at -480/+440 at PinnacleSports.com, the house edge is only 1.26% – much less than the 1.92% edge on a MLB game with -104/-104 pricing. If you want to know how much juice another sportsbook is charging, use the calculator and compare.
A simple trend to remember with series or mid-series betting is to never underestimate the result of a series' first game. The winner of the first game ultimately takes the series 79% of the time.
Bettors should also be careful with the size of bets to avoid hedging. Usually players who bet long shots often bet against the initial future once it has equity, trying to "lock in a profit". For example, let's say a bettor has the Indiana Pacers to win the series at +320 and the New Jersey Nets are a -240 favorite in game 7. Many players with Indiana series bets would bet on the Nets in game 7. It's fine to bet the Nets if one believes that's "the right side", but it's a mistake to bet New Jersey just to hedge a Pacers' future. A hedging bettor may have wagered too much on Indiana initially. Hedging out half costs the juice on the hedge play; if the player had just bet half as much to start with, he'd avoid that cost.
One thing to remember is that home court advantage becomes monstrous in a seventh game where home teams have won a whopping 85% of game sevens in NBA history. While many sharps know this and bet the game, many fail to cash in on mid-series wagers. If a team is up 3-1 or 3-2, don't be afraid to lay heavy chalk on the favorite.
With the first round series in full swing, here's just two examples of the futures the public and pros are playing.
Detroit to win NBA Championship -127
The Pistons opened at +114, and after being flooded with public money, Detroit has fallen to -127 to win the NBA Championship. The Pistons finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA, despite losing its final two games while resting many players. Historically, the public has always backed the team with the best record to win the league championship.
Dallas to win the Western Conference +346
After taking multiple hits from sharps, the odds on the Mavericks to win the Western Conference fell from +405 to where it currently stands at +346. While the wise guys are backing them to win the conference, no one thinks Dallas can hang with Detroit. The Mavericks opened at +980 to win the NBA title, but the influx of Detroit money has elevated Dallas's price to +1133.
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Press Contact: Kyle Fratini
Company Name: PinnacleSports.com
Email: kyle@kfratini.com
Phone: 212-979-6010
Website: www.pinnaclesports.com
AndhraNews.net News for April 27, 2006
