AARAA predicts victory for YSR Congress with huge majority
April 20, 2014 - Hyderabad
Agastya Research and Analysis Agency (Aaraa), a Hyderabad based agency that conducted a survey predicted that YSR Congress Party will win 105-112 Assembly and 15-18 Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra.
The survey predicted that TDP-BJP alliance will get 55-65 Assembly and 10 Lok Sabha seats while giving 10-15 Assembly seat and one MP seat to independents.
Aaraa predicted that TRS will emerge as the single largest party with 52-57 Assembly and 7-9 Lok Sabha seats while the Congress-CPI combine will get 43-45 Assembly and 7-9 MP seats. It said that YSRCP may get 3-6 Assembly and one MP seat. MIM will get 6-7 Assembly and 1-2 MP seats. TDP-BJP combine will get 12-15 Assembly and 2-3 MP seats.
The survey reported that people would vote on the basis of issues like bifurcation, price rise and inflation, economic downslide, corruption, power shortages, power bills and political instability besides the development-factor in both the states. In Seemandhra, the key issue happens to be the state’s bifurcation and the majority opinion is against the Congress, TD and the BJP.
Alliance seems to be costlier to TDP
The survey said that the alliance of the TDP-BJP will become costlier to the TDP that was clearly visible in three of the four Rayalaseema districts – Anantapur, Kurnool and Kadapa where Muslims have a sizeable percentage of the electorate. It found that that TDP has marginal gains by taking a majority of Congress leaders into it and the support of Jana Sena founder Pawan Kalyan to BJP to woo Kapu community voters.
In Seemandhra, the report says, YSRC was ahead of the TD-BJP alliance by nearly eight per cent. With a projected vote share of 49 per cent, the YSRC was seen to win between 105 and 112 Assembly seats.
In the Lok Sabha seats, the party was likely to win 15 to 18 of the total 25. The Congress is expected to win at least one Lok Sabha seat in Seemandhra.
The others, namely independents, with 12 per cent vote share, may end up winning 10-15 Assembly seats. More importantly, they could play a crucial role in making or breaking these parties.