Operation on `Red Mosque helped Musharraf uphold government writ: US expert

A well known American strategic analyst has said that Pakistan President Pervez Musharrafs decisive action on the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) last week has enabled him to maintain his and the Shaukat Aziz Governments authority. Teresita Schaeffer, the Director of the South Asia program at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that Musharrafs decision to go into the mosque was necessary because its leaders and students were directly challenging the Pakistan Governments writ.

Washington, July 18 : A well known American strategic analyst has said that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's decisive action on the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) last week has enabled him to maintain his and the Shaukat Aziz Government's authority. Teresita Schaeffer, the Director of the South Asia program at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said that Musharraf's decision to go into the mosque was necessary because its leaders and students were directly challenging the Pakistan Government's writ.

"They (the mosque authorities) were kidnapping people and they (the Government) couldn't stand for that. I think his deciding to uphold governmental order will help in the short term," Schaeffer said in an interview to ANI TV.

However, she pointed out that the military operation on the mosque, was only one of four major problems that Musharraf and his military-backed Government had addressed, and therefore, there was an urgent need to address the other three as well. These were the cross-border fighting related to the Taleban and the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, the hostilities with different groups of extremists in Pakistan's North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and with the tribal factions in volatile Baluchistan, and the consequences of suspending Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, and the ethnic and regional differences within Pakistan. All those three problems are very much alive. In fact, the explosion on Tuesday in the venue where the Chief Justice was supposed to speak, makes us look as if the violence that was a part of some of these early problems, is now spilling over, and is the fallout of the Chief Justice's expulsion," Schaeffer said.

Had Musharraf not ordered the attack on the Lal Masjid, the public would have perceived his reluctance to act as "a sign of great weakness," she added.

"I think until the moment he (Musharraf) decided to go into the Red Mosque, he had people in Islamabad kidnapping people of the streets, and not to respond to that, what has been assigned a great weakness. He has pushed back against that particular problem, and I think, shown himself capable of upholding basic governmental functions," Schaeffer said.

When asked whether the recent events in Pakistan would have a impact on Islamabad's ties with India, and in particular with relation to Kashmir, the former American envoy said: "I think they will not have very much impact on Pakistan's relation with India except in one sense. If there is any possibility of India and Pakistan reaching some kind of an agreement on various issues that divide them, it will have to be done by a Pakistani Government that India believes can deliver."

"So, that in so far, is India believes that Musharraf is too weakened to be able to deliver. Then it reduces the chances of their reaching an agreement," she added.

Harking back to the situation prevailing in Pakistan, Schaeffer said that the apparent breakdown in the administrative system was visible for some time, but was only now being admitted to by the regime.

"The political consequences from the suspension of the Chief Justice are continuing without much impact from the operation on the Red Mosque, and the fact there was a bombing at the venue (near the Supreme Court complex) where the Chief Justice was about to speak is going to remind everybody in Islamabad of that. There has been an increase in the violence; there has been a suicide bombing in which a large number of people were killed, and the Government is only now formally acknowledging the breakdown of the agreement in the tribal areas," said Schaeffer.

The sacking of Chief Justice Chaudhry, she said, would remind people of the arbitrariness of the action, and would looked at with a great deal of suspicion, and as far the holding of elections in Pakistan is concerned, Schaeffer predicted an obvious opposition to Musharraf in the light of recent events.

But she added that what was going for Musharraf was the fact that the opposition was still a divided house, and "Nobody has really taken hold as the leader of the movement against him."

On the question of the United States being ready to fork out 750 million dollars as aid for Pakistan's North West frontier areas over the next five years, Schaeffer said that Washington had and would continue to have important interests in Pakistan, regardless of who was in power.

"Right at the moment, it's Musharraf; and that's who we (US) are dealing with. We have to keep in mind that the country has 160 million other people. So, when Richard Boucher (Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asian Affairs) announces a "Big A" package for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), this is in response not to Musharraf, but to the need to develop these areas so that they can start a sanctuary for terrorists operating both in Afghanistan and Pakistan," said Schaeffer.

She, however, said that Washington would need to continue to work on this program, and make a "policy more exclusively towards Pakistan, with Musharraf only being the current architect of the top job, rather than just focussing on President Musharraf."

She said that the tragedy of US policy towards Pakistan post 9/11; has been and remains anti-terrorism operations, but this did not take away the fact that Washington's support for a return of democratic rule in Pakistan was diminishing in any way. It was only on the lower side of the scale of priorities.

Asked as to what direction Pakistan was taking politically, Schaeffer told ANI TV that under current legislation, the elections of the national and the provincial assemblies should take place between mid-September and mid-October, and that of the president between mid-October and mid-January, which suggested a degree of flexibility, but the ground reality is that the holding of elections is still seen as very controversial, and has become more so since the Government suspended the Chief Justice. he most controversial aspect of the forthcoming polls, she said, would be Musharraf's status, both as Chief of Army Staff and as President. The legislative waiver granted to Musharraf to enable him to occupy both posts five years ago, is to expire at the end of 2007. So, what needed to be watched was whether Musharraf would collude in the re-enactment of the same legislation, and if so, how would the Pakistan judiciary respond. Would it be submissive, or proactive?

Schaeffer also ruled out the possibility of Musharraf giving up his uniform.

"The bottom line is that the Parliament gave him (Musharraf) most of what he wanted (in 2002-03), and he agreed to one thing that the Parliament wanted - to step down from the Army by the end of 2003. I have nothing resembling another pledge, but another pledge to step down from the army, would not be taken seriously by the Pakistani opposition, because they have seen one made and ignored," she said.

On Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, Schaeffer said Kabul would love to see Islamabad take more explicit control of its tribal areas, making it harder for the Taliban to move back and forth. If that objective were achieved, it would be a definite "plus in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations."

She, however, opined that the biggest significance of the latest operation in the NWFP and FATA would be its impact internally in Pakistan.

Admitting that relations between Islamabad and Kabul were passing through a tough phase, Schaeffer said the clashes between Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in the recent past were queering the political pitch further.

"I think that both of them have very raw feelings about each other, and about each other's countries, and this is making it more difficult for them to manage it," she said.

As far as the tribal areas on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border were concerned, she said that administratively and historically the area had never had formalised or modern governance, and this had precipitated offensives on and off.

"There were periods of fighting and periods of negotiations, all of which have had an ambiguous outcome. The truce (September 2006) that is now supposed to have broken down; provided for a number of things that would have made the situation much better. So far as I am concerned, the truce has stopped; it never really became a very effective instrument," Schaeffer told ANI TV.

ANI