US expert says Musharraf-Bhutto deal unstable

An American expert on South Asian affairs has expressed scepticism about the stability of the proposed and as yet unannounced deal between Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf and two-time former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Islamabad, Aug.30 : An American expert on South Asian affairs has expressed scepticism about the stability of the proposed and as yet unannounced deal between Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf and two-time former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who until recently was a South Asia expert at the U.S. State Department, said a deal between Bhutto and Musharraf was the best among a set of imperfect options.

"It's a good transitional situation, but it's not a stable, workable setup in the long run. There's not a lot of love lost between the two of them," the Washington Post quotes Markey, as saying.

Markey's comments have surfaced even as Musharraf has reportedly agreed to step down as Pakistan's army chief as part of a broad and once-unthinkable agreement with Bhutto.

According to officials party to the proposed deal, it could in broad terms, fundamentally alter the political landscape in Pakistan, a top U.S. ally on counter-terrorism but also a haven for al-Qaeda and other extremist groups.

There are still a couple of issues that need to be worked out, officials said.

An agreement would have been highly improbable six months ago, but since March, when an attempt by Musharraf to fire the chief justice led to civil unrest, Pakistan's politics has been in deep turmoil, and the general's standing has fallen precipitously.

With the chief justice reinstated in July and likely to block Musharraf's plans to win a new term in office, analysts say the president's options have narrowed considerably.

An agreement between Musharraf and Bhutto would be welcomed in Washington, where Bush administration officials have been pushing for an alliance of moderates in Pakistan to battle rising forces of extremism.

While the United States had not been actively involved in the negotiations, it had been prodding the two sides to come together and had helped to facilitate the talks, according to people familiar with the U.S. role.

If the deal goes through, it would involve a dizzying array of concessions on both sides that would require numerous changes to Pakistani law, including constitutional amendments.

For Musharraf, the deal means he would get to serve another five years as president if elected for a new term by the parliament and provincial assemblies.

Either way, officials indicate that Bhutto will instruct her party not to block Musharraf's plans, provided he runs as a civilian. The election could take place as early as mid-September, meaning Musharraf would be stepping down from his army role in the next few weeks.

For Bhutto, the agreement would allow her to return to Pakistan and stand for election to the parliament. If her party, the center-left Pakistan People's Party, won the most seats, as projected by opinion polls, she would be in line to serve as prime minister for a third time.

Although the two sides are close together on terms, various wild cards remain.

Among them is the impending return of Sharif, who has vowed not to compromise with Musharraf and has chastised Bhutto for doing so.

Another unknown is how the Supreme Court would react to the deal between Musharraf and Bhutto, and whether it would strike down any of the legal changes called for in the agreement.

If the plan succeeds, Musharraf and Bhutto face the prospect of governing together. Bhutto said she anticipates Musharraf continuing to run the nation's foreign policy, but said she would expect to take control of domestic matters.

ANI