University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have predicted a 92 percent chance that the 2007 September minimum Arctic sea ice cover will be at an all time low.
Washington, Aug 16 : University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have predicted a 92 percent chance that the 2007 September minimum Arctic sea ice cover will be at an all time low.
Scientists had in April forecast a 33 percent chance of the September minimum sea ice cover setting a new record. But, rapid disintegration of sea ice cover during July led them to dramatically revise their prediction.
"During the first week in July, the Arctic sea ice started to disappear at rates we had never seen before," said Sheldon Drobot, a research associate of CU-Boulder's Colorado Center for Astrodynamics.
"We have been seeing a sharp decline in thicker, multi-year ice that has survived more than one melt season. This has been replaced in many areas by a thin, first-year layer of ice as well as by younger, thinner types of multi-year ice. The thinner ice just does not have the mass to withstand the effects of warming climate," added CCAR Research Associate James Maslanik.
Drobot, who also leads the CCAR's Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group in CU-Boulder's aerospace engineering sciences department, said factors triggering the unusually strong July sea-ice decline appeared to be a combination of less multi-year ice and more cloud-free days, which accelerated the melting effects of solar radiation on the ice.
"Things can really change fast, which is why we continually update our forecasts," he said.
Drobot further said that the highest probability minimum sea ice cover for 2007 is 1.96 million square miles, although there is a 25 percent chance that it low will fall to 1.88 million square miles and a 5 percent chance of it falling to 1.75 million square miles.
The record low September minimum for sea ice, set in 2005, is 2.15 million square miles.
ANI